How Manchester United could get Luka Modric for less than £30m, and why that would be right

Stories have been in the British media this week saying that Sir Alex Ferguson will not be paying over the odds for players this summer and is preparing an initial £22m bid for Tottenham's Luka Modric. The bid would surely be turned down and then the dance of transfer negotiation would begin, but United may not need to go over £30m to get their man this summer.

But Andy Carroll cost £35m and Jordan Henderson cost £20m and such a person cost such an amount and those were all ridiculous fees so how can you say Modric is worth less than £30m when you compare it to that?

Hmm, if a transfer fee is widely thought to be ridiculous then it can hardly used for comparison. It's madness that Liverpool paid £35m to Newcastle United for Andy Carroll but the imaginary transfer inflation that creates doesn't make Danny Welbeck worth £40m, Gonzalo Higuain £70m and Luka Modric anything more than £30m.

Sometimes odd fees will be paid through mad panic, incompetence, or simply because there is huge competition for a player. None of these situations apply to Luka Modric, Manchester United, and this transfer window.

Chelsea seem to have changed their plans since originally going for the Croatian and he doesn't look like a target for Manchester City. However, if either of those sides came in throwing huge amounts around then the likelihood is that Manchester United would simply walk away.

Gone are the days when United would add an extra £2m after each 'no', assuming they were getting closer to the inevitable 'yes'. If the deal isn't good for the Old Trafford club then the deal won't be done, that seems to be as widely accepted this summer as the claims that Daniel Levy will try to bleed as much as possible out of clubs for his players.

So a compromise would have to be reached and Levy will be aware that this time Manchester United would simply walk away before getting into the realms of what they would consider to be silly money. Even the most staunch Tottenham fan must accept it's unlikely Luka Modric will see out his career at White Hart Lane. So it then becomes a question of when and not if he leaves the club.

Modric will turn 27 around the start of next season which puts him at the outer limits of Manchester United's recruitment policy. Fans don't like to think about potential sell-on fees but money men do and it's they who hold the purse strings. 

In April the Modric to Manchester United link was talked up with a fee of £40m but, regardless of what Andy Carroll cost and regardless of what Chelsea were said to have offered, that sounded too much.

I said at the time:

Has Luka Modric become one of those players who everyone says is underrated to the point that he becomes a bit overrated with people still claiming he doesn't get enough credit. < Read that three times and it may make sense.

Modric has been labelled one of those 'Thinking Fan's Footballers' which generally means that if you criticise his value to a team then you have no idea about the game. It's a term, coupled with others, used to explain the credits of a player when they're not immediately obvious.

To be clear Luka Modric is a very gifted footballer who can glide through a midfield and make it tick, he's excellent at keeping things going and linking play from the back to the front. When on form, there are few better at that role.

However, he doesn't directly assist in many (yes, I know assist stats are subjective but eyes aren't) and he doesn't score many. Those aren't his strengths, he's not really a dynamic player - he isn't the Scholes replacement some think he is. The little ginger veteran has an urgency to his game this season that Modric simply doesn't.

Is there any kind of leadership and responsibility from Modric on the pitch, does he drag his team on when they need his help? The second half of this season, and other spells, would suggest not. There are suggestions the player is tired and has played too many games, but Luka Modric's total number of Tottenham appearances this season is 36, hardly the stuff of legend. There are further suggestions that rumours of interest from Chelsea and Manchester City have affected his form during differing chunks of the season, well that's hardly something you'd want on a footballer's CV is it?

A big move to Manchester United and instant and constant brilliance would be demanded from the Croatian, you only need look at the reaction to David de Gea to understand that. It's impossible to tell and I don't want to slate his mental strength because the 'transfer gossip' excuse used by Harry Redknapp to explain patchy form could just be a way to protect his player.

Obviously that's all taking a negative slant on it and there's the flip side that he could come and solve all Manchester United's issues and recreate the Garden of Eden at Old Trafford, I'm not saying that isn't possible but there's countless articles painting that picture and I just wanted to balance it out.

Back to the actual transfer and it's 'value', the Croatian will be 27 around the start of next season and if he moves then he'd be wanting a five year contract on way over £100,000 a week, he'd know that would take him close to the end of most player's careers. Great for him but it's doubtful he'd be at his best when he's coming up to 32 and, whether fans like it or not, the potential for sell on fee comes into the thinking when evaluating a transfer.

So let's say United do pay £40m and give him a not eye watering £150,000 a week for five years. The total, not including agents fees, would be £89m with little chance to recoup some through a decent sell on fee. Even at £30m, the cost is still £79m, based on those wage figures which could go higher or lower.

Why should fans care about that? Well, they're welcome to stick their fingers in their ears and pretend it doesn't matter but should the transfer not work then it's highly unlikely another option would be riding into town. He'd be given at least two years, taking him to near 29, and then if it had gone wrong there'd be few clubs willing to part with anything substantial for him.

Like most transfers, this one has its risk and Manchester United will not be throwing caution to the wind in their pursuit of Luka Modric. Whilst the initial bid of £22m mentioned by several in the press may seem too low, it's probably much closer to what the club will be willing to pay than any previous claims of £40m.

Daniel Levy could find himself with a player handing in his second transfer request in two years, and only one realistic buyer. 

This was written by Annie Eaves, follow her on Twitter @AnnieEaves and get disproportionally upset when she dares to hold a differing opinion from your own.  

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You seemed to have a missed a few points here ....why would Spurs sell him at all? have you understood "Spurs are not a selling club".  He is on contract until 2016..why would we strenghten our rivals...sell him abroad for 22m if needs be but not to you...why assume that Utd will be the only ones interested ? I would prefer we sold him to kebab utd then you lot . Pay up Utd or shut up. the way you are no longer title holders...or have you not realised.. The lure to utd is no longer that strong.


PS if you have 22m to spend ...we will give you Jenas and Bently




You underestimate our great leader Mr Levy, Jemima and Beetle for 22mil, way too cheap for Danny. 

I wouldn`t worry if Modders did leave, Sandro would take care of his threat. COYS!

You Seem to have Missed a Few Points Yourself me ol son.

1 - Your Manager is a Gangster 2- Your Chairman is Money Mad and would sell his Mother for the Right Price and 3 - The lure of Utd is No Longer strong - BwaaaaHAHAAAAAAAA...... Do me a Favour mate. Take that face to the Toilet 4 a Good shit will ya.

Dont be Bitter old Chap - THFC = Training Ground for the BIG BOYS.

A reality check is indeed in order here.  Spurs do not want to sell and do not have to sell.  Whether there is a market for Luka Modric or not is irrelevant.  Daniel Levy does not have to drive up the price if he is not going to sell in the first place.  But if he did sell the logic of this argument does not stack up with history.  Daniel Levy got top dollar (at the time) from Fergie for both Carrick and Berbatov when nobody else came in for them. 

Take the Bentley and Jenas deal offered by Barna Bee, it's all you will get out of Spurs for £22m.  I'd even chuck in Gomes for a round £30m.

Ya pal - Cuz We realy Need the likes of Them Donkeys at old Traff -

Time To Face REALITY boys - Spurrs are Nobodys - The Nearly Men.

Always gonna be the Bridesmaids - Never the Bride - PMSL.

And no amount of big man / shite Talk on here feeling all important is gonna chance that folks. Deal with it - Big Players want Big clubs ( Champ Lge ) Snigger Snigger

lol... spurs not a selling club... discount last season and look at what you have... a selling club lol....

Yes Spurs buy too... but to say they aren't a "selling club" in a little misguided...

Modric has 4 years left on his contract, but if Modric decided thats it, there is very little spurs can do except lose money putting him in the reserves and watching his value drop....

So much will be determined by the player here, and after Levys hard bal last summer i imagine Modric and his agents will be prepared this summer.... If modric wants off there is little Spurs can do without losing out...

Troll post is bad troll post

5th biggest net spend in the league.

Let me explain what net spend is, because you're probably a little thick here.

It's where you take what we've spent, and take away what we've sold.

And in case you wondered what a selling team look like...

Newcastle United: -£30.25 million

Arsenal: -£31.3 million

Villa have the 4th biggest net spend in recent years. And yet we are considered as one of the most obvious in this made up world of "selling clubs". 

And if we're basing it on net spend, then Sunderland, Fulham, QPR, Wolves and Stoke are all bigger than Spurs. 

Net spend has nothing to do with it.

"Little Thick"... lol... oh the irony....

Isn't nice to have some Spuds about to amuse us.... You are Liverpool without the success lol

"why would we strenghten our rivals" - Man United don't compete for 4th place every year actually, we compete for the title I think you'll find. A feat that spurs are a long way off. I don't want Modric, a lot of reasons in this article I have stated myself in the past and there were quite a number of other reasons which I didn't know about that have further put me off. £22 million is okay, £24 million would be reasonable - anything above would be ridiculous. Would rather us buy an all round midfielder, like Kevin Strootman, or Yohan Cabaye. Much better value for money with them two players.

Yes Manure are our rivals you need to understand the meaning of the words you use, we compete in the same league (EPL) we play for the same cup titles in domestic competitions, you are sadly misguided if you can not accept this as the truth! We are rivals (not local rivals, but rivals all the same) and if you want to say we are far of competing, we were 2 points behind you last term, you missed out on the title less marginally than we missed out on CL, please stop kidding yourself, we know we have made lots of improvements and know we still have improvements to make, (like any club) you think you are the finished article that is your major downfall as you saw your bitter rivals snatch the title from you, it's sad really because what you took years to achieve the real Manchester club acheived in a relatively short period of time with a shed load of cash!

The REAL Manchester Club - MwaaaaaHaahhahhahhahhaahhahhaaaaaaaaaaaaaa...... ComedyGold,

19 Plus 3.

800mil Plus =  1Prem (By A Whisker )   

It Must Be Terrible to be Stupid Son Is It ? LOL LOL pmsl - Suck shite Talk



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